By Chris Snellgrove
| Updated 5 seconds ago
For most DC fans, the critical and commercial failure of Supergirl comes as quite a shock. After all, last year’s Superman was the breakout blockbuster of the summer, earning more at the box office than either of Marvel’s films (The Thunderbolts and The Fantastic Four: First Steps). It was directed by geek king James Gunn, the same man who runs DC Studios. He absolutely loved the script for Supergirl and pushed the movie’s production schedule up. With Gunn’s seal of approval, the spinoff featuring Superman’s cousin seemed destined for greatness. But as the opening weekend projections plummeted and the critical reviews came in, it soon became clear that this movie was a failure.
What we didn’t know was how much of a failure. Now, we have the answer, and it’s actually much worse than you thought. According to Deadline, the movie is currently set to lose Warner Bros. a cool $125 million. That would be bad news for any blockbuster and in any circumstance. However, Supergirl bombing is that much worse because it’s not just losing the studio plenty of cold, hard cash; it’s also shaking confidence in Gunn’s ability to lead the DCU in its fight with Marvel for box office supremacy. Now, a sobering fact emerges: the DCU may implode long before we even see the new Justice League onscreen.
Playing The Blame Game
Right now, some of the film’s biggest fans are trying to make the movie into another culture war flashpoint. The more militant fans are claiming that Supergirl’s critics are misogynists and incels who just weren’t ready to see a strong woman on the big screen. However, it genuinely seems like Supergirl was doomed more by the forces of apathy than misogyny. The low opening weekend (lower than Morbius, yikes!) is an indicator of how few people actually bothered to see the movie. Plus, in a bit of Morbin’ (er, morbid) irony, Supergirl undermines much of its girlpower street cred because of a very prominent storyline about sex trafficking.
But how did Deadline arrive at the conclusion that Supergirl will lose the studio $125 million? They looked at factors such as the production cost (somewhere between $170-$186 million) and the movie’s opening weekend box office ($68 million). They also considered how much the domestic publicity and advertising budget was ($120 million) and how much the movie needed to make in order to break even (about $315 million). Throw in the estimates for declining weekly box office, and you get a bleak conclusion: Supergirl is going to lose somewhere around $125 million, making this a very public, very expensive failure for Warner Bros.
The Canary In The Coal Mine
With this kind of box office loss, it’s unlikely that Supergirl will ever headline another future film in the DCU. However, there may be a downstream effect where this impacts larger projects in the future. For example, Supergirl is supposed to be a major character in Superman: The Man of Tomorrow; if audiences hate that film because of her presence, it could spell bad news for James Gunn. If that Superman sequel is a hit, then it will pave the way for Wonder Woman, The Brave and the Bold, and, eventually, a Justice League film. If it bombs, though, the DCU could die before the JL even team up onscreen.
All DC fans should care about Supergirl’s failure because this movie is effectively the canary in the coal mine for the entire cinematic universe. Considering how many skipped seeing Supergirl, how much worse will it be for future projects featuring even more obscure heroes and villains? DC Studios has already shot a Clayface film, and they are currently working on a Deathstroke and Bane movie and a TV show that pairs Jimmy Olsen up with Gorilla Grodd. These are big creative swings, and they might all connect. But even if they all turn out to be excellent, that won’t matter if hardly anybody is watching them.
It’s worth noting that while critics dragged the DCEU for years, it produced about five commercial flops before Warner Bros. pulled the plug. Therefore, it might not be the end of the world now that James Gunn’s DCU has only produced one flop. However, superhero fatigue is dragging down box office earnings, and Gunn is facing stiff competition from Marvel in the form of Spider-Man: Brand New Day and Avengers: Doomsday. Supergirl losing $125 million right before WB gets new leadership potentially changes the game for Gunn, and not in a good way. He’s not going to get five strikes; in fact, he’ll be lucky to get more than one!
