Chile’s Presidential Handover Collapses Over a Chinese Cable, Cuba’s Speedboat War Escalates to Terrorism Charges, and the “Shield of the Americas” Summit Rewrites the Hemisphere’s Bloc Map — Two Days Out
Executive Summary
The Big Picture: The hemisphere’s political architecture is being redrawn in real time. In 48 hours, twelve or more Latin American heads of state will gather at Trump’s Doral resort in Miami for the “Shield of the Americas” summit — a meeting explicitly designed to formalise a U.S.-led alliance that excludes Chinese infrastructure investment from ports, lithium deposits, and 5G networks. Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia are conspicuously absent from the guest list. The summit is not merely a security conference: it is the institutional launch of a hemispheric bloc premised on the rejection of Beijing’s decade-long infrastructure push across the region.
Chile’s transition has broken down in an unprecedented rupture unseen since the country’s return to democracy in 1990. President-elect Kast walked out of La Moneda on Tuesday after a 22-minute meeting, cancelled all remaining ministerial handover sessions, and accused outgoing President Boric of concealing information — at the centre of it all, the “Chile-China Express” fiber-optic cable project backed by state-owned China Mobile, which U.S. Secretary Rubio has sanctioned. Washington revoked visas for three senior Chilean officials. Beijing’s ambassador accused Washington of “hegemonic” behaviour. Kast arrives at the Doral summit on March 7 — four days before his own inauguration — already immersed in a Washington-Beijing confrontation he did not create.
Brazil’s GDP data confirmed what analysts feared: the economy grew just 2.3% in 2025, its weakest performance since the pandemic, as the 15% Selic rate choked household consumption and investment. Lula enters his re-election campaign year with a structurally slowing economy, a Minas Gerais flood disaster (72 dead), and an Iran-driven oil shock that splits the market — Petrobras profits, but inflation reprices the Copom’s March 17–18 decision. The Ibovespa staged a partial recovery Wednesday (+1.24%), though analysts at The Rio Times warn that forecasts for 2026 growth range as low as 1.6%.
Cuba filed formal terrorism charges against six survivors of the February 25 Florida speedboat incident — a case that has rapidly escalated into a direct flashpoint between Havana and Washington. Cuba says the men were armed infiltrators from a U.S.-based exile group; the U.S. says no government personnel were involved and has called for an independent investigation. Charges carry potential sentences of 20–30 years, or the death penalty under aggravating circumstances. The incident is compounding Washington’s oil embargo and has turned the Caribbean into a secondary theatre of the hemisphere’s ideological contest.
Mexico’s Sheinbaum scored a historic labour win: a constitutional reform reducing the workweek from 48 to 40 hours — implemented gradually from 2027 to 2030 — cleared the Chamber of Deputies 411–58 on February 25 and is now before state legislatures, where Morena controls enough votes for ratification. The IPC recovered sharply Wednesday (+2.91% to 70,428.03), partly reflecting domestic optimism despite lingering cartel succession risks and World Cup security pressures.
Colombia enters election weekend with Sunday’s triple ballot — legislative seats and three simultaneous presidential primaries — now just three days away. COLCAP continues its partial recovery (+0.99% to 2,170.53 Wednesday) but remains deeply oversold (RSI 34.58). The tariff war with Ecuador remains the dominant bilateral crisis.
Regional Mood
Fractured and Accelerating. The hemisphere is being sorted into blocs in real time — and the pace is faster than most capitals anticipated. Washington’s “Shield of the Americas” summit, Chile’s cable crisis, Cuba’s speedboat confrontation, and Brazil’s GDP shock all converge this week into a single structural moment: a U.S.-China rivalry that has fully arrived in Latin American domestic politics. Neutral ground is narrowing rapidly.
Risk Snapshot
Country
Risk Level
Key Driver
Chile
CRITICAL
Transition collapsed over China-cable dispute; U.S. visa sanctions on 3 officials; Kast at Doral Mar 7; inauguration Mar 11; IPSA −2.85% Tue / +2.40% Wed recovery
Colombia
CRITICAL
March 8 triple ballot in 3 days; Ecuador tariff decree gazetting imminent; COLCAP oversold (RSI 34.58)
Cuba
CRITICAL
Terrorism charges filed against 6 exile survivors; oil embargo ongoing; U.S. demands independent probe; death penalty possible under aggravated charges
Brazil
ELEVATED
2025 GDP 2.3% — weakest since 2020; flood toll 72+; Copom decision Mar 17–18; election-year fiscal risk; Ibovespa +1.24% partial recovery Wed
Argentina
ELEVATED
90-reform cascade under way; Doral “Shield of Americas” summit Mar 7; CGT strike threat; MERVAL −0.66% Wed (RSI 30.54 — deeply oversold)
Mexico
ELEVATED
40-hour workweek reform cleared Congress; CJNG succession fragmentation ongoing; World Cup security; IPC +2.91% Wed recovery
Ecuador
ELEVATED
SOUTHCOM joint ops active; 50% tariff on Colombia products; CAN dispute lodged; absent from Doral guest list despite Washington alignment
Venezuela
ELEVATED
Rodríguez indictment dispute unresolved; Machado return date unconfirmed; González health uncertainty; Rubio “phases” timeline dampens elections
Bolivia
ELEVATED
C-130 cash recovery raids ongoing; Pres. Rodrigo Paz attending Doral summit; departmental elections March 22
Peru
ELEVATED
April 12 election 38 days out; López Aliaga leads at 43% Polymarket; severe flooding Mar 5–6; 700+ districts under emergency
Chile
What Happened
—Transition Collapses in 22 Minutes: President-elect José Antonio Kast walked out of La Moneda on Tuesday after a 22-minute meeting with outgoing President Gabriel Boric, cancelled all remaining ministerial transition sessions, and accused Boric of concealing information — a rupture analysts described as unprecedented since Chile’s return to democracy in 1990. The trigger was the “Chile-China Express” project: a proposed 19,873-kilometre submarine fiber-optic cable backed by state-owned China Mobile that would link Valparaíso to Hong Kong under a 30-year concession. Kast demanded Boric retract televised claims that he had briefed the incoming administration about the cable “weeks before” U.S. sanctions became public. Boric refused, and the meeting ended.
—Washington, Beijing, and Three Sanctioned Officials: The dispute has a geopolitical scaffolding. On February 20, U.S. Secretary Rubio revoked visas for three senior Chilean officials — Transport Minister Juan Carlos Muñoz, Telecommunications Undersecretary Claudio Araya, and Subtel chief of staff Guillermo Petersen — accusing them of compromising critical telecommunications infrastructure. A concession decree signed January 27 was revoked 48 hours later under disputed circumstances. China’s ambassador to Chile accused Washington of seeking to monopolise international communications and acting in a “hegemonic” manner; the U.S. ambassador defended the visa curbs, citing “foreign malicious actors” in Chilean telecom systems.
—Kast at Doral, Four Days Before His Own Inauguration: Despite the transition collapse, Kast is confirmed for the “Shield of the Americas” summit in Miami on March 7 — presenting him on a U.S.-aligned regional stage four days before he formally assumes power. His “Border Shield” immigration crackdown is pledged to begin on inauguration day, with a 3,000-strong border force for Chile’s north.
—Markets: IPSA fell a further 2.85% on Tuesday to 10,248.96 before staging a partial +2.40% recovery on Wednesday to 10,494.97 (RSI 38.05/42.22), still well below February’s highs. The copper-linked index remains sensitive to both Brent-driven EM risk-off and the transition uncertainty.
Why It Matters
The cable dispute is not primarily about telecommunications — it is the U.S.-China rivalry made visible in a domestic political transition. Chile is the world’s largest copper producer and a critical node in Pacific trade. Washington has made clear that a state-owned Chinese company operating a 30-year concession over a trans-Pacific undersea cable terminating in Chilean territory is a strategic red line. Beijing has made equally clear that excluding China Mobile from Chilean infrastructure is an economic sovereignty question Kast’s government will have to answer.
Political analyst Ernesto Ottone warned the crisis risked producing either a “harsh government driven by paranoid fears” or an “intransigent, fanatical opposition.” Kast himself partially walked back his original retraction demand — later acknowledging that Boric did raise the cable issue on a February 18 call — suggesting the rupture may be as much tactical positioning ahead of the inauguration as genuine institutional breakdown. Boric has pledged full cooperation through March 11.
The deeper structural question is what Kast does with the concession once in office. He inherits a decision that no amount of summit attendance can postpone: whether to proceed with, renegotiate, or permanently revoke the China Mobile project. His answer will define the first major foreign policy test of Chile’s new right-wing government and signal to the region how far the “Shield of the Americas” alliance intends to push Chinese infrastructure rollback.
Key Watch
March 7: Kast at Doral — bilateral with Trump and position on “secure infrastructure” protocols. March 11: Inauguration — cabinet composition and first executive action on China Mobile concession. Rubio confirmed to attend Santiago ceremony. Watch whether the remaining ministerial transition sessions resume before March 11.
Risk Level: CRITICAL
Cuba
What Happened
—Terrorism Charges Filed Against Six Exile Survivors: Cuba’s Attorney General’s office formally charged six survivors from the February 25 speedboat incident with “crimes of terrorism” and ordered them held in pretrial detention. The defendants — all Cuban nationals residing in the United States — were aboard a Florida-registered vessel (FL7726SH) that Cuban border guards intercepted off the northern coast of Villa Clara province. Cuba says the boat carried 10 heavily armed men: approximately 13 rifles, 11 pistols, and nearly 13,000 rounds of ammunition, Molotov cocktails, bulletproof vests, and night-vision equipment. Four people died in the resulting gunfight; six were captured. Chief Prosecutor Edward Robert Campbell confirmed the charges carry sentences from 10–15 years for lesser offences to 20–30 years — or the death penalty under aggravated circumstances — though Cuba has maintained a moratorium on executions since 2003.
—Exile Group Link and Washington’s Denial: Two of the detainees — Amijail Sánchez González and Leordan Enrique Cruz Gómez — were already on Cuba’s national terrorism watch list. Cuba’s Interior Ministry says the operation was organised by the Miami-based “Autodefensa del Pueblo” exile group, which it claims trains recruits in the United States for attacks on the island. Secretary Rubio told reporters the U.S. government is investigating but categorically denied any U.S. government personnel were involved. U.S. legislators have called for an independent investigation, expressing scepticism about Cuba’s account.
—Compounding Pressure on the Island: The speedboat confrontation has unfolded against a backdrop of maximum external pressure. The U.S. oil embargo on Cuba is fully active, with Washington permitting only the resale of Venezuelan crude to Cuba’s private sector for humanitarian purposes. Cuba began March with an electricity deficit leaving 64% of the island in the dark, according to UPI reporting. A separate operation has detained 10 Panamanian nationals in Havana for alleged propaganda against the constitutional order — accused of producing subversive signage for payments of $1,000 to $1,500 each.
Why It Matters
The speedboat incident has become Cuba’s most significant security confrontation with the United States since the Obama-era détente collapsed. It places Washington and Havana on a collision course: Cuba is holding six U.S.-resident nationals on terrorism charges that carry potential death sentences, while Washington has demanded an independent investigation Cuba has no interest in permitting. The legal clock now running in Havana will impose a bilateral timeline that neither side controls.
The ideological stakes are high. Trump has spoken openly about a potential “friendly takeover” of Cuba, and the incident feeds a U.S. domestic political narrative — supported by the Cuban-American lobby in Florida — that the embargo and pressure strategy is necessary. Cuba, for its part, has every incentive to publicise the charges to demonstrate regime security capacity at a moment when the island is suffering severe energy shortages and watching Venezuela’s political transition from a position of strategic anxiety. The Caribbean is no longer a quiet flank of the hemisphere’s ideological contest.
Key Watch
Trial timeline for six detainees — Cuba’s Attorney General indicated proceedings within “coming months” with potential additional charges against overseas financiers. U.S. State Department response to terrorism charges. Cuba’s electricity crisis resolution. Whether Doral summit produces any formal U.S. posture on the island’s future.
Risk Level: CRITICAL
Brazil
What Happened
—GDP 2.3% — Weakest in Five Years: Brazil’s national statistics institute IBGE confirmed on March 3 that the economy expanded just 2.3% in 2025 — down sharply from 3.4% in 2024 and the worst performance since the 2020 pandemic contraction of 3.3%. Q4 growth registered a near-stall at 0.1% quarter-on-quarter. Household consumption grew only 1.3%, a dramatic deceleration from 5.1% the prior year, directly attributed to the 15% Selic rate. Agriculture surged 11.7% on record soybean and corn harvests, masking underlying demand-side weakness. The Finance Ministry maintained a 2.3% forecast for 2026, but private-sector estimates cluster between 1.6% and 1.9%.
—Election-Year Fiscal Pressure Compounds the Outlook: Brazil enters an election year with general government debt projected to reach 95% of GDP in 2026 — among the highest debt burdens of any emerging market economy. Goldman Sachs has warned that Lula cannot replicate the fiscal approach of his third term in a potential fourth. Recent polls suggest a tight race between Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a potential runoff, with markets noting that a conservative victory could trigger one of the strongest EM equity rallies in the region’s history.
—Flood Toll at 72, Renewed Rainfall Warnings: The death toll from Minas Gerais floods reached at least 72, with INMET warning of renewed heavy rainfall across Minas Gerais, Rio, and São Paulo states through March 7. February 2026 was the wettest month ever recorded in Juiz de Fora. Lula has pledged free housing for displaced families; Greenpeace Brasil has noted that approximately a quarter of Juiz de Fora’s 540,000 residents live in zones the government’s own Cemaden agency has flagged as flood-risk areas.
—Markets: The Ibovespa staged a partial recovery Wednesday, closing at 185,366.44 (+1.24%), as RSI (53.06/65.95) shows the index consolidating after Tuesday’s sharp −3.28% sell-off. BCB Copom meets March 17–18; with the Selic at 15% and post-Iran inflation repricing, the base case has shifted to a hold.
Why It Matters
The GDP confirmation arrives at the worst political moment for Lula. He is seeking a fourth term on an implicit economic stewardship claim — and the data shows the economy performing at pandemic-era lows under his watch. The structural story is not a crisis: agriculture is thriving, oil exports are strong, and formal employment is growing. But household consumption — the variable that translates macro performance into voter sentiment — has collapsed under the weight of the highest interest rates in the developed and developing world.
The Copom’s March 17–18 decision is a pivotal moment. If the BCB holds rates — as the Iran oil shock and above-consensus IPCA printing now suggest — the rate-cut narrative that briefly powered Brazil’s equity rally through February collapses. The election-year dynamic complicates matters further: loosening monetary policy prematurely to boost growth invites credibility damage; staying tight extends the household consumption squeeze into the campaign season. There is no easy path.
Key Watch
Today: BCB Focus survey inflation expectations — rate-cut path read. INMET severe weather warnings Mar 5–7. March 17–18: Copom — hold or cut? Tarcísio de Freitas presidential run announcement timing. Oct 2026 election poll trajectory.
Risk Level: ELEVATED
Mexico
What Happened
—Historic Labour Reform Clears Congress: Mexico’s Chamber of Deputies approved the constitutional reform reducing the standard workweek from 48 to 40 hours — gradually, by two hours annually beginning in 2027 until full implementation in 2030 — by 411 votes to 58 on February 25. The Senate had approved the measure earlier in the month. As a constitutional amendment, the reform now requires ratification by at least 17 of Mexico’s 31 state legislatures, where Morena’s governing coalition controls the required majority. The Labor Ministry described the result as “after more than 100 years without modifications, Mexico will gradually leave behind the 48-hour workweek.” An estimated 13.4 to 13.5 million workers who currently labour more than 41 hours weekly stand to benefit once fully implemented.
—A Counter-Narrative to Milei, and a Political Prize for Sheinbaum: The reform’s passage is a signature domestic achievement for President Sheinbaum, directly contrasting with Argentina’s Labour Modernisation Law — passed the same week — which extends working hours, reduces severance, and limits the right to strike. The two reforms represent mirror-image visions of labour policy and are being watched closely by labour movements across the region. Critics note Mexico still mandates only one rest day per six worked, and that expanded overtime provisions partially offset the headline reduction.
—Markets & Security: The IPC (BMV) recovered strongly Wednesday, closing at 70,428.03 (+2.91%), with RSI (52.50/58.81) in neutral territory — a reversal from Tuesday’s 3.04% sell-off that partly reflects domestic political optimism and a stabilisation in global risk sentiment. CJNG succession dynamics remain a persistent background risk; security analysts still identify four to five commanders positioning for leadership, with the Wilson Center warning that cartel fragmentation represents the most dangerous near-term trajectory ahead of June’s World Cup matches in Guadalajara.
Why It Matters
Mexico’s labour reform is not merely domestic policy — it is a positioning statement in the region’s ideological divide. With the hemisphere sorting into Washington-aligned right-wing bloc and an increasingly isolated left, Sheinbaum is demonstrating that Mexico can pursue pro-worker structural reform while managing a difficult bilateral relationship with Trump. Mexico is conspicuously absent from the Doral summit guest list — alongside Brazil and Colombia — which the Trump administration has framed as a natural consequence of left-leaning governance.
The USMCA review deadline looms over Mexico’s political calendar throughout 2026. Sheinbaum must simultaneously manage the World Cup, the USMCA review, cartel security pressure, and a labour reform implementation that business groups warn could drive up informal employment if not managed carefully. The Banco BASE director has already flagged inflationary pressure from the minimum wage increase. The 40-hour workweek adds another variable to Mexico’s delicate economic balancing act — but also gives Sheinbaum a popular mandate reinforcement that her predecessors lacked.
Key Watch
State legislature ratification timeline for 40-hour workweek — needs 17 of 31 states. CJNG succession developments in Guadalajara and Jalisco. USMCA review framework discussions, Q2. World Cup security deployment in Guadalajara, June.
Risk Level: ELEVATED
Regional Snapshot
Argentina
Milei attends Friday’s Doral “Shield of the Americas” summit as Washington’s anchor in the Southern Cone — his second bilateral engagement with Trump in less than two months. The CGT union confederation is weighing a general strike in response to the Labour Modernisation Law, which passed the Senate 42–28 on February 27 and allows 12-hour working days, reduces severance, and limits strike rights. A judicial challenge before the Supreme Court is pending. The MERVAL fell −0.66% Wednesday to 2,579,970 with RSI at a deeply oversold 30.54/36.96, as global risk-off outweighs reform optimism at home. The first monthly batch of Milei’s 90-reform cascade — covering civil and commercial codes, customs, and electoral law — is expected before Congress within weeks.
Colombia
Three days from Sunday’s triple electoral event — 103 Senate seats, 183 House seats, and three simultaneous presidential primaries — Colombia’s political temperature is rising. The tariff war with Ecuador continues: the March 5 public comment deadline on Colombia’s reciprocal 50% decree closed today, with gazetting expected imminently. Colombia’s exporters project a 79% decline in shipments worth $1.45 billion annually if the decree is enacted. COLCAP continued its partial recovery Wednesday (+0.99% to 2,170.53), but RSI remains oversold at 34.58/47.45. Right-wing lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella faces a primary test against Democratic Center Senator Paloma Valencia as the presidential bellwether for the May 31 first round.
Venezuela
The Reuters report claiming U.S. prosecutors had prepared a sealed indictment against interim President Delcy Rodríguez remains disputed after Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche’s denial, leaving the transition’s durability uncertain. María Corina Machado has confirmed she will return “in a few weeks” but named no date; President-elect Edmundo González remains in Spain, reportedly receiving treatment for a hip ailment. Rubio continues to signal a “phases” approach to elections that dampens any near-term balloting timeline. The Venezuela file is conspicuously absent from the Doral summit agenda — an implicit acknowledgement that the transition remains too fragile for institutional celebration.
Bolivia
President Rodrigo Paz attends the Doral summit — his first major international multilateral appearance — signalling Bolivia’s tilt toward the Washington-aligned bloc under the post-Arce administration. Domestically, police raids in El Alto and La Paz to recover stolen banknotes from the February 27 C-130 crash continue; approximately 30% of the 50 million bolivianos transported remains unaccounted for. Bolivia’s departmental and municipal elections are scheduled for March 22 — the first major domestic test for the new administration. Black box analysis of the C-130H crash (a 49-year-old airframe from 1977) is expected to take up to a year.
Ecuador
Despite Washington alignment, Ecuador does not appear on the confirmed Doral guest list — a conspicuous gap given its role as the hemisphere’s most aggressive Washington security partner this year. SOUTHCOM joint operations launched March 1–3 following Gen. Francis Donovan’s Quito visit are now active. The trade war with Colombia enters a new phase today as the public comment period on Colombia’s 50% reciprocal tariff decree closes, with both sides having filed Andean Community complaints. Ecuadorian exporters warn 40,000 jobs and $273 million in annual exports are at risk.
Peru
With 38 days until the April 12 presidential and legislative elections, SENAMHI’s intense rainfall warning covers 700-plus districts today and tomorrow — threatening the final stretch of campaign logistics in coastal and highland regions. Rafael López Aliaga leads at 12–15% in polls (43% on Polymarket); Keiko Fujimori sits at 8–10%; a cluster of candidates including Alfonso López Chau, Mario Vizcarra, and comedian Carlos Álvarez trail at 4%. Undecided voters still constitute 40–42% of the electorate. The ballot will also reinstate the Senate for the first time since 1992 — Peru’s most significant institutional change in a generation, with 60 Senate seats to be filled alongside the presidential race.
Special Focus: The Doral Summit — What It Is, and What It Excludes
The “Shield of the Americas” summit on March 7 at Trump National Doral Miami is the first formal multilateral convening of Trump’s aligned Latin American leaders since he took office. The White House confirmed the guest list on Wednesday: Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Honduras, Panama, Paraguay, Trinidad and Tobago, and “maybe some others.” The three largest economies in the region — Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia — are absent.
The summit’s explicit agenda centres on “secure infrastructure” protocols — formalising commitments to exclude Chinese companies from ports, lithium deposits, 5G networks, and now, after Chile’s cable crisis, undersea communications infrastructure. The National Interest has characterised the gathering as the institutional launch of the “Americas Shield Alliance,” entering an already crowded field of regional organisations but with the clear backing of U.S. military and financial architecture.
The geopolitical significance of the exclusions is as important as the attendees. Brazil under Lula, Mexico under Sheinbaum, and Colombia under Petro — combined representing more than 65% of the region’s GDP — are on the outside. The Pravda analysis cited the summit as representing “the U.S. transition to a policy of strict delimitation of spheres of influence in Latin America,” while the National Interest warned the minilateral approach “fails to generate the necessary support and risks failing to meet its longer-term objectives.” The summit creates a hemispheric architecture that, by design, deepens the fracture between Washington’s aligned bloc and the region’s larger, more ambiguous economies.
Summit Watch
March 6: Welcome reception at Doral Cultural Arts Center (invitation-only). March 7: Summit begins noon — “secure infrastructure” protocol signing, anti-narcotics and counter-migration frameworks, Venezuela transition status review. Watch for bilateral Milei–Trump, Kast–Trump, and Bukele–Trump meeting readouts. Outcomes will define the alliance’s institutional architecture for the year ahead.
Markets at a Glance
Index
Close
Change
Session
Ibovespa (B3)
185,366.44
+1.24%
(Wed Mar 4)
MERVAL (BYMA)
2,579,970.37
−0.66%
(Wed Mar 4)
IPC (BMV)
70,428.03
+2.91%
(Wed Mar 4)
COLCAP (BVC)
2,170.53
+0.99%
(Wed Mar 4)
IPSA (Santiago)
10,494.97
+2.40%
(Wed Mar 4)
Brent Crude
~78.00
+6.7%
(est. Mon–Tue surge)
Market Note
Index figures reflect Wednesday, March 4, 2026 closing prices confirmed by TradingView TIER 0 charts. Wednesday’s session delivered a broad partial recovery: Ibovespa +1.24%, IPC (BMV) +2.91%, IPSA +2.40%, COLCAP +0.99%. The MERVAL remained the exception, declining −0.66% on Doral summit nerves and persistent reform-fatigue selling. MERVAL RSI is deeply oversold at 30.54/36.96. The Brent crude Iran-shock premium has stabilised near $78; sustained Hormuz pressure above $80 would reignite inflation repricing across the region. All five major markets remain below their February highs, and the summit and Colombia’s Sunday elections represent the next two catalysts.
The Week Ahead
Date
Event
Significance
Mar 5
BCB Focus survey (Brazil); Colombia reciprocal tariff comment deadline
First post-Iran-war inflation expectations read; Colombia decree gazetting now imminent
Mar 5–6
Peru: SENAMHI intense rainfall warning (700+ districts)
Emergency declarations active; campaign logistics disrupted 38 days out
Mar 6
Doral welcome reception (invitation-only, Miami)
First gathering of “Shield of the Americas” aligned leaders before summit proper
Mar 7
“Shield of the Americas” summit at Trump National Doral
12–13 leaders; “secure infrastructure” protocols vs. China; Milei, Kast, Bukele, Peña bilaterals with Trump
Mar 8
Colombia: legislative elections & presidential primaries
103 Senate seats, 183 House seats; De la Espriella vs. Valencia primary; May 31 bellwether
Mar 11
Kast inauguration (Chile); Rubio attends Santiago
Border Shield launches; first executive decision on China Mobile cable concession expected
Mar 17–18
BCB Copom rate decision (Brazil)
Selic at 15%; Iran shock + IPCA above consensus = likely hold; rate-cut narrative at stake
Mar 22
Bolivia: departmental elections
First domestic electoral test for Rodrigo Paz government
Apr 12
Peru presidential & legislative elections
López Aliaga leads (43% Polymarket); first bicameral Congress since 1992; Senate reinstated
Ongoing
Cuba terrorism charges — trial timeline
Six detainees in pretrial detention; proceedings “coming months”; death penalty under aggravated charges
Ongoing
Chile China Mobile cable decision
Kast must decide to proceed, renegotiate, or permanently revoke 30-year concession post-inauguration
Ongoing
Venezuela transition — Machado return, Rodríguez indictment
Durability of U.S.–Rodríguez arrangement contingent on unresolved legal cloud; election timeline undefined
Ongoing
Mexico: 40-hour workweek state ratification
Needs 17 of 31 state legislatures; Morena majority ensures passage; implementation begins 2027
